Sunday, April 7, 2013

Mobile Device Growth: Too Far?


If you follow any type of news feed relating to technology, the discussion about device convergence has been fairly steady for the past few years. Moore’s Law is routinely noted as well as references to Dick Tracy’s communicator watch, Star Trek’s “tricorder” and Nightrider’s car, Kit. All these devices conceived in fantasy but are coming closer and closer to reality.

Computers continue to get smaller, yet smartphones seem to get bigger. And now tablets seem to be bridging the gap between smartphones and computers, at least in terms of size, if not functionality.
But where does the convergence end? It must at some point, right? Or will it lead to divergence instead? There are those in the field who believe we will see the need for stand-alone devices (link), despite the push for convergence that has been ballyhooed for the past 20 years.

When put into practical, everyday applications I look at the devices we currently use at the world’s largest home improvement retailer. When I started with the company in 2008, there were stationary desktop computers located throughout the store and everything else was run through the mobile ordering carts, a combination of battery powered computer and small printer, used to create price labels. And there was usually only 3-5 of the mobile ordering carts per store. Communication was done via handheld radios and overhead public address (PA) system.
"Sure, once I hack into the family calendar, I can
send mom an email reminder and make her think the
playdate was her idea!"


Currently, the tool of choice out on the sales floor, away from the desktop computers located throughout the store, is the handheld device created by Motorola that allows any associate to do a multitude of functions, from checking on-hands and prices to creating orders, packdown lists and requesting transfers from other locations. It also functions as the “walkie talkie” for associates.
There is supposedly a camera built into the device, but as far as I know, there has never been an application to use the camera.

However the “phone” is big, heavy, bulky and consumes power much too fast – usually a new battery is required before a typical 8-hour shift is complete. They introduced an even smaller, iPhone-sized device, but the rumor[i] is that a device more along the size and style of a tablet will be the next wave of tool used by folks out on the sales floor.

It seems to be a living example of device convergence, but while the devices or tools given to associates to use on the floor have continued to get smaller and do more, a couple things haven’t changed.
There are still dedicated fax lines in every store. There are still desktop computers (albeit, they have added flat screen monitors) and hardwired, multi-lined telephones located throughout the store. And the ever-present overhead PA system.

The advance of technology in these handheld devices could surely duplicate all the functions of a fax machine, a desktop computer, a telephone system and PA system. But they have made no move to replace such devices. And this is not some little mom and pop operation. We are talking about one of the largest retailers in the world. Even the rumored next device being a larger, tablet-styled device seems to fly in the face of expected device convergence: a single, smaller device doing the functions of what had previously done on several larger devices.

Specifically, as it relates to the mobile device market, there seems to be a push for continued cross-over between mobile phone communications, increased computing and internet access capabilities, camera features – all in the tablet form.

The other aspect of this convergence of devices is the rise of mobile-first applications or “apps.” These are programs designed first and foremost for use on mobile devices, not desktop or browser based programming adapted to mobile technology, like Facebook or Pinterest. Most of the big mobile-first companies are not names commonly known outside the directly related technology field.

And the companies who create the platforms on which these apps are built are even more obscure. Names like Flurry, Appcelerator, StackMob/Parse/Kinvey, appMobi, Sencha, Geoloqi, Localytics, Crashlytics and DeviceAnywhere are huge in the mobile first world.

The apps that remain big currently are from companies like Path, Instagram, Foursquare, Flipboard, Pulse, LevelUp/Dwolla, Rovno (Angry Birds), Lookout Security and Dolphin HD Browser. These companies have mobile apps for social networking, videos, reading news, photography, location and check-ins, and many other similar services.

I try to envision what the world will look like to my four-year old twin daughters when they reach an age when they are using technology everyday that I could not even dream of at my current age. Maybe things like the Pebble Watch or Google Glass will be commonplace, or even passé, by the time they are 20 years old. Will their mobile devices still be hand-held or subcutaneous implants they have to receive as a requirement for college or their first job.

"That is great! I won't even have to cry in
front of Dad! They will both be fooled!"

Already, they try to make things happen on my laptop by touching the screen, like my iPhone or Kindle. They will grow up with touch screens, never knowing what the eerily glowing green light and phosphor burn-in was all about. Even the differences between the twins and my 14 year old son are enormous in terms of technology. He knows that television shows air on certain nights or days, while the twins believe every show they could ever want to see is on-demand.

The next few years will definitely be interesting in terms of the convergence of personal computing and personal communication devices. Is there a point where the convergence will actually reverse for some devices or will they continue to get smaller and smaller, all the while becoming more and more powerful and multifunctional? What do you think? What do you envision our future to hold? To look like? What are you looking forward to?


[i] Rumors are a way of life in a company as large as the one referenced. There is no way to confirm this rumor has any validity.

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